COVID-19

[Andrew McIntosh]

Been reading in the news about Italian events. Very hardcore. From what I understand the virus is in pretty much every continent but at varying degrees. It's a very fast moving disease, but we live in a fast moving world. No wonder it's mutating to keep up.

I don't think anyone is able to explain the fetish for toilet paper. Just about every news report and social media post on the subject expresses how silly the obsession is, but no one seems to be defending it, that I've seen so far.

My biggest concern is the knock-on effect on economies, both regional and the world's. Even if this thing is under control by, for example, July, that's a huge amount of time for people to be unproductive in a gobal society that demands productivity. World Depression II.

[Theodore]

I don't think anyone is able to explain the fetish for toilet paper. Just about every news report and social media post on the subject expresses how silly the obsession is, but no one seems to be defending it, that I've seen so far.

I remember my grandpa was using the newspaper to clean his ass. Always ! Harsh, haha ! And indeed that was that newspaper's real and only value.

Dont know guys. All this seems too much to me. Like world decided to create big problem out of nothing. One gov follows the other, and we all go the downfall. I talk about economical consequences, yes. - Maybe this virus become the worst killer in history, who knows, not likely, but for now i think it's mass hysteria that will cause us real problems. And i cant blame the people, it is the governments that are taking extreme measures like never before, so it's quite normal some people be panic'd as well.

[Kim V]

Dont know guys. All this seems too much to me. Like world decided to create big problem out of nothing. One gov follows the other, and we all go the downfall. I talk about economical consequences, yes. - Maybe this virus become the worst killer in history, who knows, not likely, but for now i think it's mass hysteria that will cause us real problems. And i cant blame the people, it is the governments that are taking extreme measures like never before, so it's quite normal some people be panic'd as well.

I wouldn't want to give a penny to all the people who might get infected without the containment measures governments are taking now. Especially not when covid-19 as it is in Italy seems to have a mortality rate of more or less 5%. It might seem drastic as long as you have an outside view on things. Media coverage is another story. For every serious article there seem to be 5 spreading the fear/misinformation.

[JLIAT]

Just a couple of points. The idea that the virus in Italy is a different one, a mutation from the Chinese, i've not come across. Even so this doesn't explain the extreme difference in the volume of cases in Italy to other countries where the source has been traced to Italy?

As for mortality rates, if in some cases the effects of the virus are minimal, and I think that is the case, and so not reported, the % will be biased. More so if there is a greater tendency to report illness or not within a social group. 

As for the virus being more deadly than flu, between 1,000 & 2,000 deaths in the UK from flu a year. 1,000 road deaths, 6,000 deaths from accidents in the home. I'm not saying it isn't deadly, or more so, i'm more confused by the data.

Finally! It is sometimes the case that the record of death might be recorded as due to the virus or some underlying condition. And this might differ in different health services. e.g. someone terminally ill with cancer, days or hours to live might catch the virus and so death be recorded as due to the virus, or due to the cancer? I had a relative in which this was the case, not cancer or the virus, but Parkinsons, cause of death was recorded as choking.

The toilet roll thing! And the sales of Anti*Bacterial*Handwash. Anyway the anti viral stuff needs 60% alcohol I see? So Vodka is no good. Is there anyone here who could tell me – would something like methylated spirits or turps do the job. I understand the alcohol works by destroying the virus' fatty membrane?

[Cementimental]

 soap works better apparently but handwash with 60%+ is good too, detailed info here: https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1236549305189597189.html

[deutscheasphalt]

The idea that the virus in Italy is a different one, a mutation from the Chinese, i've not come across. Even so this doesn't explain the extreme difference in the volume of cases in Italy to other countries where the source has been traced to Italy?

Me neither, would like to see a source for that claim as well. The difference of cases in Italy could have multiple reasons - lots of tourists, unprepared hospitals, lots of old people, ... all speculation of course.

As for mortality rates, if in some cases the effects of the virus are minimal, and I think that is the case, and so not reported, the % will be biased. More so if there is a greater tendency to report illness or not within a social group.

The cases are not reported by "social groups" but by hospitals directly to WHO. Given the urgency of the situation I doubt any doctor would actively prevent reporting cases tested positive for covid.

As for the virus being more deadly than flu, between 1,000 & 2,000 deaths in the UK from flu a year.

Yes but there are also way more flu infections than what's to be expected from covid. UK even reports an average no. of deaths of 17,000 over the last 5 seasons by flu like diseases. It's fucking hard to find these numbers but I've come across a mortality rate for flu of below 1%, which is less than covid (3.4%). You can't just compare the total amount of deaths, but instead take the percentage of people that got infected and then actually died from it and compare those.

It is sometimes the case that the record of death might be recorded as due to the virus or some underlying condition.

This is already being distinguished by the statistics (deaths in combination and without underlying health conditions). Average mortality rate across ages for covid without any underlying health conditions is below 1% (still all old people)

The toilet roll thing! And the sales of Anti*Bacterial*Handwash. Anyway the anti viral stuff needs 60% alcohol I see? So Vodka is no good. Is there anyone here who could tell me – would something like methylated spirits or turps do the job. I understand the alcohol works by destroying the virus' fatty membrane?

Most common antiseptics for viral disinfection are polyhexanide & octenidine dihydrochloride; whereas alcohol is less effective against viruses. The toilet paper thing is almost a meme at this point - does the virus literally scare the shit out of people?!

[GEWALTMONOPOL]

This Corona virus is worse than football with its many armchair experts everywhere. The worst are the conspiracy theorists.

But I'm glad to hear Nadine Dorries got it though. It's good if she dies.

I hope it doesn't fuck up the Magma gig I have tickets for.

Marco, hope things are OK in spite of everything and that things return to normal for you soon!

[JLIAT]

As for mortality rates, if in some cases the effects of the virus are minimal, and I think that is the case, and so not reported, the % will be biased. More so if there is a greater tendency to report illness or not within a social group.

The cases are not reported by "social groups" but by hospitals directly to WHO. Given the urgency of the situation I doubt any doctor would actively prevent reporting cases tested positive for covid.

Not what I meant, I meant some may get sick, think its just a cold so not report it to anyone.  We only know the numbers who are tested positive, not those who are never tested and get over it. So if we don't know how many actually get the virus the figures are not definite, and if a large number of individuals get the virus and recover without even knowing they had it, the % is wrong. So it should be 3% of those tested positive, and then the age and underlying health caveat.

As for the virus being more deadly than flu, between 1,000 & 2,000 deaths in the UK from flu a year.

Yes but there are also way more flu infections than what's to be expected from covid. UK even reports an average no. of deaths of 17,000 over the last 5 seasons by flu like diseases. It's fucking hard to find these numbers but I've come across a mortality rate for flu of below 1%, which is less than covid (3.4%). You can't just compare the total amount of deaths, but instead take the percentage of people that got infected and then actually died from it and compare those. 

The 3% in China was only in the outbreak area I thought, elsewhere lower... and also age and underlying medical conditions. It seems saying 3% mortality rate in these cases is not reasonable. If you just say 3% mortality rate it implies 3% of any of 100 infected, which is not  the case, which your last point covers.

As for toilet paper, I can remember many years ago using newspaper, maybe we should re-introduce this, recycling and improves literacy!

[CannibalRitual]

As for toilet paper, I can remember many years ago using newspaper, maybe we should re-introduce this, recycling and improves literacy!

It will clog toilets so creates more jobs as well, for those who wanna clean it up.

[deutscheasphalt]

Not what I meant, I meant some may get sick, think its just a cold so not report it to anyone.  We only know the numbers who are tested positive, not those who are never tested and get over it. So if we don't know how many actually get the virus the figures are not definite, and if a large number of individuals get the virus and recover without even knowing they had it, the % is wrong. So it should be 3% of those tested positive, and then the age and underlying health caveat.

The 3% in China was only in the outbreak area I thought, elsewhere lower... and also age and underlying medical conditions. It seems saying 3% mortality rate in these cases is not reasonable. If you just say 3% mortality rate it implies 3% of any of 100 infected, which is not  the case, which your last point covers.

Okay thanks for clarifying. However, the uncertainty of how many actually get the virus is in place whether it be covid or regular flu and thus enables comparing the statistics between those. Again, 3% is the total average mortality rate across all age groups of all cases so far and is of course taken only from positive test results; Would be a bit much if it was % of the total population.

[JLIAT]

As for toilet paper, I can remember many years ago using newspaper, maybe we should re-introduce this, recycling and improves literacy!

It will clog toilets so creates more jobs as well, for those who wanna clean it up.

It might also help the journalists who write in these to be more realistic in their opinions of themselves.

BTW- it never did block, I think these days fat is more a problem. And condoms....

[DSOL]

Has anyone watched "Pandemic: How to Prevent an Outbreak" on Netflix?

[tiny_tove]

Rise of deaths, rise of sick people, lack of tools, stricter laws and it is officially considered Pandemia by the WHO

After two days, there are still good signs of improvement in the original red zone.

[holy ghost]

Has anyone watched "Pandemic: How to Prevent an Outbreak" on Netflix?

I did - really enjoyed it, particularly the pig testing scenes farm is Venezuela or wherever it was.

[Bleak Existence]

many more case here in Canada too future looks bleak